Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Feb 2003
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest
flare during the period was a long duration C4.5 event from Region
276 (S14 L-160) that occurred at 15/0810Z. LASCO/C-2 imagery (first
seen at 15/0930Z) depicted a resulting CME that may have a weak
Earth-directed component. Another CME was observed by LASCO earlier
in the period (first seen at 14/2206Z) that appears to have been the
result of a filament eruption in the northeastern quadrant of the
solar disk (centered at approximately N45E30). This CME may also be
Earth-directed. There was further CME activity seen in LASCO
imagery which appears to have been from back-sided source regions.
With exception to the aforementioned, there were only a few minor B
and Cl-class flares observed from the active solar regions during
the interval. New Region 288 (N12E72) was newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active
levels. An isolated period of quiet conditions were seen at
mid-latitudes between 14/2100 and 2400Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to the
effects of a large recurrent coronal hole. Days two and three may
experience further enhancements due to the CME activity seen today
(IA)
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
- Class M 15/10/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Feb 124
- Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 125/120/120
- 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 016/019
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 012/020-015/020-018/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/40/45
- Minor storm 15/25/25
- Major-severe storm 05/10/15
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/30
- Minor storm 30/30/40
- Major-severe storm 15/15/25
