Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Spotless Region 1135 (N18E30)
produced a C5 x-ray flare at 15/0639Z. The only spotted group on
the visible solar disk is Region 1133 (N13W74). It is classified as
an H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued influence
from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds were
averaging just above 600 km/s at the start of the forecast period
and ended with speeds around 550 km/s at reporting time. The
interplanetary Bz ranged from -/+ 4nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, for the next three days (16-18 December) due to the
continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 087
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 087/086/084
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 007/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 02/01/02
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 02/02/02