Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 December 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk is
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind observations from the
ACE spacecraft indicate the onset of a co-rotating interaction
region at around 06/0530Z. Solar wind velocity and density
increased slightly with fluctuations in the IMF Bt and Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated
active conditions, for day one (06 December) due to a coronal hole
high speed stream. Conditions are expected to be predominately
quiet for days two and three (07-08 December).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 072
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01