Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Numerous low-level
B-class events occurred, the largest being a B4 at 2339Z from Region
1035 (N30W05). Region 1035 has grown steadily during the past 24
hours and is currently a 20 spot Dai Beta group with an area of
approximately 150 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 December).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 082
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 000/000
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01