Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S10W52) produced several low B-class flares. This region is now a magnetic beta configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 978 could produce an isolated low level C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective 16-18 December. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 December. Active conditions are expected for 17 December with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at mid latitudes and isolated major storming at high latitudes. Unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected for 18 December.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Dec 089
• Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/010-020/025-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/30/20
• Minor storm 10/20/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/35/25
• Minor storm 15/25/20
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05