Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A few small B-class flares occurred during the last 24 hours, mostly originating from Region 835 (N18E01). Region 835 continues to be the largest group on the disk with a sunspot area of about 160 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Dec 087
• Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01