Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 15 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Only a couple of minor
C-class flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active too minor storm levels. A
high-speed solar wind stream due to a coronal hole continued to
elevate activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at active to minor storm levels through the
remainder of the 15th. The field should subside to quiet to
unsettled levels for 16 – 18 Dec as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective range.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Dec 101
- Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 098/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 016/024
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 025/028
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 018/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/35/35
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/35
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
