Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 15, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 15 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Only a couple of minor
C-class flares have occurred.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active too minor storm levels. A
high-speed solar wind stream due to a coronal hole continued to
elevate activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at active to minor storm levels through the
remainder of the 15th. The field should subside to quiet to
unsettled levels for 16 – 18 Dec as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective range.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Dec 101
  • Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 098/100/105
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 016/024
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 025/028
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 018/020-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/35
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.