Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N18W73) produced
several B-class flares and also a C5/Sf flare at 15/1830Z. The
SOHO-NASA spacecraft c2 imagery observed an eruptive filament at
15/0812Z near N35W40. The DSF is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. The
increase in activity is in response to a coronal hole high-speed
stream on day one (16 August). The activity on days two and three
(17 – 18 August) are in response to the CME observed on 14 August.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 086
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.