Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (16 – 17 August).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (18
August) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins to
disturb the field.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 068
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01