Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (16-18 August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (16 August). An increase to quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods is expected on days two and three (17-18 August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Aug 065
  • Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 066/066/066
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/15/30
  • Minor storm 01/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 05/20/50
  • Minor storm 01/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.