Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There was no significant activity observed this period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed increased to near 480 km/s as a coronal hole rotated into a geoeffective position.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Aug 068
• Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/012-008/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01