Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There was no significant activity observed this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed increased to near 480 km/s as a coronal hole rotated into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Aug 068
- Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/012-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/15
- Minor storm 05/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 15/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01