Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 904 (S14W03) produced four B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B8 flare at 15/1044Z. The penumbra in the large trailer spot appears to be breaking apart; however, the area, number of spots, and magnetic complexity have not changed significantly since yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 15 Aug 086
• Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 086/086/090
• 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01