Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 15 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 797
(S13E03) underwent some decay in sunspot area while strengthening
magnetically. Gamma characteristics have become visible in the
southern portion of the region. Region 798 (S08E39) remains a
simple alpha group. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 798 has the potential to produce C-class
flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to minor storm levels.
Isolated major storming may be possible on 16 and 17 August due to a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A decrease to
predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on 18 August as the
coronal hole wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Aug 076
  • Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 075/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 016/025-016/025-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/45/35
  • Minor storm 25/25/15
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.