Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 15 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 656
(S13W48) produced multiple M-class flares again today, the largest
was an M9/1n that occurred at 15/1241Z that had an associated faint
CME seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from the southwest solar
quadrant. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Sun spot
area showed a slight increase from yesterday and the
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure has undergone little change over
the past 24 hours. The remainder of the active regions were
quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
isolated major flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may occur throughout the period due to the
potential of weak flanking blows from the CME activity observed over
the past couple days.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

  • Class M 80/80/80
  • Class X 25/25/25
  • Proton 15/15/15
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 15 Aug 139
  • Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/135/130
  • 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.