Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2003
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S11W13)
exhibited little change in the past twenty-four hours. This region
continues to produce numerous C-class flares with the largest one a
C7 at 15/0018Z. Region 431 has decreased slightly in area coverage
but maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Analysis
of Region 433’s (S19E10) growth and development indicates that the
trailing and leading spots are two separate regions. The trailing
spots were numbered as New Region 434 (S23E02).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two periods of
active conditions was observed. Solar wind speed remains elevated
near 600 km/s and Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible while solar wind speed remain elevated. Wind speed is
expected to decrease on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 15 Aug 131
- Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/130/130
- 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/018
- Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
