Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2002
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 66
(N14W10) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0605 UTC. It continued to
grow at a gradual pace. Region 67 (N33E04) produced an isolated
C-class subflare as it continued to grow at a gradual pace. Region
69 (S07E24) produced occasional C-class subflares as it continued to
grow in size and magnetic complexity. It is now large enough to be a
naked eye sunspot and contains a very strong delta configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated low level M-class flares are expected. There is a
chance for an isolated major flare from Region 69.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during
most of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began
at geosynchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC ended at 14/1950 UTC. The
maximum for this event was 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high
levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active to minor storm levels near the start
of the period following yesterday's long-duration M2/partial-halo
CME event. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on 17 August as CME effects subside. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 18 August. There is a slight chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to 
high levels during the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 210
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  215/215/220
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  025/030-015/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/25
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.