Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 April 2012

By SpaceRef Editor
April 15, 2012
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Two low-level
C-class flares occurred from a source beyond the northeast limb.
Region 1459 (S16E64) produced occasional B-class flares while it
rotated more fully into view as a Dai-type group with a beta
magnetic classification. Region 1455 (N05W46) showed intermediate
spot development during the period and was classified as a Dsi-type
with a beta magnetic classification. Small Axx-type Region 1454
(S12W00) produced a B9 x-ray flare at 15/0908Z associated with a
slow partial-halo CME, which is not expected to be geoeffective. No
new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (16 – 18 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (16 – 18 April).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 102
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.