Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Seven C-class flares were
observed during the period. The largest was a C9/1f flare observed
at 14/2051Z from Region 1297 (S16W52). A full halo CME was observed
from SOHO NASA LASCO C2 images at 14/0000Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 428 km/s. The source of the CME was an
eruption in the vicinity of Region 1289 (N24W25).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (15-17
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (15-17
September). The CME is expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 143
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01