Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 14 2257 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The disk was quiet
and stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1106
(N19E30).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (15 September). Quiet
to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on
day two (16 September) due to the arrival of the CME observed on
September 11. Day three is expected to be predominately unsettled
with isolated active periods, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 081
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 082/083/083
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/10