Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Sep 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
September 14, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds measured at the ACE spacecraft indicate a gradual increase in velocity. As the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream approaches, speeds have increased from about 285 km/s to around 350 km/s over the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions for 15 September due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 September, with mostly quiet conditions expected for 17 September.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Sep 067
  • Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 066/066/066
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 000/000
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/015-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/10
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/10
  • Minor storm 10/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.