Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods early on day one (15 September). Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Sep 067
• Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01