Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 909 (S08W95) produced a C1 flare at 14/0735Z, along with multiple B-class flares, during the past 24 hours. Region 908 (S13W47) produced two B-class flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 15 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods are expected for 16-17 Sep, as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Sep 083
• Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/25
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05