Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions
1112 (S18W00) and 1113 (N17E63) each produced isolated low-level
B-class flares. New Region 1114 (S22W41), a single-spot A-type, was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 – 17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (15 –
17 October) due to weak CME effects from a filament eruption on 11
October.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 080
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 080/080/082
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 007/007-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01