Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days 1 and 2 (15 – 16
October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown coronal
holes begins to influence the field. Activity is expected be mostly
quiet by day 3 (17 October).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 071
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01