Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. During the period, Region 1005 (N27W02) decayed both in spot count and areal coverage.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind velocity, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decayed and ended the period near 375 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels all three days of the forecast period (15 – 17 October).

III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Oct 070
• Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 072/073/075
• 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 007/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01