Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for 15-16 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected for 17 October due to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Oct 067
• Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/15
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 01/01/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10