Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 540 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on 15 October. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 16 – 17 October.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Oct 072
• Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 015/024
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 015/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01