Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 14 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region, numbered 815 (N08E75), appeared on the east limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with unsettled to active conditions possible on 15-16 October as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Oct 078
• Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/012-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/25
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05