Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 682 (S13E50)
produced a C1.0 at 13/2206Z and a C1.7 at 14/0329Z. Region 682 grew
to 245 millionths in white light, and maintained a beta magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 682 may produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed at ACE continued a steady increase and ended the period
at 540 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 15 October, from the residual
effects of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Activity
should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 October.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 091
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 017/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/015-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05