Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The two spotted
regions on the solar disk are stable and have not produced any
significant activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions.
The elevated activity is a result of the continued rise in the solar
wind velocity and sustained southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at active to minor storm conditions
with isolated major storm conditions possible. These effects are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Oct 092
- Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 100/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 025/040
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 025/040-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/40/35
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/45/45
- Minor storm 30/25/25
- Major-severe storm 15/15/15
