Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Four new emerging flux regions
were observed overnight, one of which emerged on the disk as Region
1348 (N20W70). Region 1348 was responsible for two C-flares
overnight; the largest was a C5/Sf at 14/0930Z. Associated with
this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated plane-of-sky
velocity of 610 km/sec. Possible decay was noted in the trailing
spots of Regions 1339 (N19W89) and 1344 (S17W86) as they are
rotating off of the west limb. There was growth noted in the
trailing spots of Region 1341 (N09W35). A slight amount of
consolidation was observed in Region 1347 (N07E28). The additional
three new flux regions were assigned numbers 1349 (N15W02), 1350
(N26E67), and 1351 (S23E51). A coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in LASCO C3 imagery at approximately 12/1906Z off of the
east limb. The plane-of-sky velocity was calculated to be 638
km/sec. An additional CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at
13/1930Z from the north limb. Neither CME is expected to become
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (15 – 17 November). There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1339, 1344 and new Region
1350.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (15 – 17
November).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 20/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 161
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 06/06/06
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 16/16/16
Minor storm 17/17/17
Major-severe storm 08/08/08