Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S22W37) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 14/0001Z. Region 1124 (N14W17) has grown in spot
count as well as area while producing several B-class x-ray events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next three days (15-17 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and
a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the
forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November.
Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the
chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active
with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 086
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/50/30
Minor storm 45/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/50/40
Minor storm 50/30/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/10