Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W53) continues to be quiet and to decline.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 1008.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels in the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled conditions possible during the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Nov 068
• Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 070/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 01/01/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01