Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 15 – 16 November as the coronal hole high-speed stream gradually subsides. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on 17 November.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Nov 070
• Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 012/015-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/20/10
• Minor storm 10/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/10
• Minor storm 15/10/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01