Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S05W05) produced occasional B-class flares. This region maintains it’s considerable size, but has become magnetically less complex over the past 48 hours. Magnetic field maps confirm the sunspot cluster near the southeast limb is two separate regions. Both these regions, 924 (S08E44) and 925 (S06E52), are small with simple magnetic configurations.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 923.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 15 November. A recurrent high speed stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods on 16 and 17 November.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Nov 095
• Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 095/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 005/005-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/25/30
• Minor storm 01/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/30/40
• Minor storm 01/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10