Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2005
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822 (S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC and an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The remainder of the disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a possibility for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Nov 092
- Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 095/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/014
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
