Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

November 15, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 699 (S13E03) and 700 (N04W40). Region 700
continues to slowly grow in sunspot number and area. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are expected.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Elevated solar wind speed (450 – 550 km/s) and a southward
period of IMF Bz between 13/2300 – 14/0300Z generated the active
periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
07/1910Z, officially ended on 13/1600Z. The peak flux was 495 pfu on
08/0115Z with a secondary peak of 424 pfu on 10/1655Z. This proton
event followed X2 flares on 07 and 10 November. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov