Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 14, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 14 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s activity consisted of
occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all
from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant
penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these
areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta
magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or
decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are
about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is
a simple, small beta type sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of
Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as
well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC
through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high
speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating
but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz),
all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days
(14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the
third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the
continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Nov 099
  • Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 028/042
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 028/036
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 025/035-020/030-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 45/45/45
  • Minor storm 35/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/35
  • Minor storm 30/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 25/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.