Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Three new regions emerged
in the last 24 hours, Region 1213 (S21W80), Region 1214 (S20E17),
and Region 1215 (S23W30). All are small and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. A slight chance for a C-class flare exists for the next
three days (15-17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an active
period, and a slight chance for a minor storm period late on day 1
(15 May). The increase in activity is forecast due to a coronal
hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective. Unsettled conditions
are expected to persist for days 2 and 3 (16-17 May) with a slight
chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 091
Predicted 15 May-17 May 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 14 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01