Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 – 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (15 –
16 May) with a chance for isolated active levels due to a coronal
hole high-speed stream. Field activity is expected to decrease to
quiet levels on day 3 (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 070
Predicted 15 May-17 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 May 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01