Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 14 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18E17)
remains a Bxo beta spot group. This region was relatively quiet,
however, it has increased slightly in sunspot count.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (15 – 17
May).

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 074
Predicted 15 May-17 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01