Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The active region that has been producing low-level flares from behind the southeast limb made its transit onto the visible solar disk. This region is currently spotless and has not produced any events.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet conditions for the forecast period of 15-17 May.

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 May 069
• Predicted 15 May-17 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01