Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered Region 956 (N02E61) produced several low level B-class flares during the period. This region rapidly grew into a Cao beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 955 (S09W45) underwent little change during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Emerging Region 956 may further develop this period to produce isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 May 073
• Predicted 15 May-17 May 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 14 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01