Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 880 (S08W70) is the only region on the visible disk with spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 May 072
• Predicted 15 May-17 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 14 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 006/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01