Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.<

Updated 2004 May 14 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 609 (S04E10)
produced several low B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
region continues to show slight growth in white light area and
sunspot count.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 609 has the potential to produce C-class events
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May

• Class M 20/20/20
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 May 110
• Predicted 15 May-17 May 112/115/115
• 90 Day Mean 14 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 017/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/015-008/012-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/20
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05