Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 May 2003
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 360 (at S04 W19)
was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar actvity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 24 hours. Two new active regions on the
east limb (returning Regions 336 at latitude N13 and 337 at S12) may
become the source of isolated C-class flares in the following days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to high speed solar wind streams from a favorably positioned coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day,
falling off to unsettled to active on days two and three. The
coronal hole causing high speed solar wind streams is rotating out
of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
- Class M 10/10/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 May 096
- Predicted 15 May-17 May 105/110/115
- 90 Day Mean 14 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 024/027
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 025/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 will once again become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors – magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 – 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
