Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2009
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 15 0112 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind velocity at ACE showed a gradual decrease from 550 to 530 km/s as effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream wane. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the forecast period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (15 – 17 March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Mar 069
- Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/05/05
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/10/10
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01