Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
March 14, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 15 0112 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind velocity at ACE showed a gradual decrease from 550 to 530 km/s as effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream wane. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the forecast period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (15 – 17 March).

III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 14 Mar 069
  • Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/016
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/05/05
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.