Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 14 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
a C1 x-ray event at 0708 UTC from Region 741 (N12W68). Region 742
(S05W24) is currently the largest group on the disk (320 millionths)
but is no longer growing and only managed to produce a few low-level
B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
742 or 741.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
minor storm period at mid-latitude from 0000-0300 UTC, and a minor
storm period based on the estimated planetary K index from 1200-1500
UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels at the
beginning of the period, but dropped below 1000 PFU after 13/2305
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (15-17
March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Mar 112
- Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 110/110/105
- 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 020/024
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 010/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/35
- Minor storm 20/20/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
