Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 14 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 570 (S13W32)
produced occasional B-class activity including a B3 flare with an
associated 130 sfu Tenflare at 14/2035Z. This region continues to
slowly decay and the delta configuration that persisted for the past
several days is no longer evident. No other significant activity or
changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible from Region 570.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Slightly elevated solar
wind speed with periods of sustained southward Bz produced the
disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 14 Mar 103
- Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 100/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
