Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels during the period. New
Region 1236 (N17E64) rotated onto the disk as a D-type spot group
and produced two low-level C-class events. A north-south oriented
filament channel, located near the SE limb, erupted during the
period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed material movement along the
large channel, first visible at 14/0609Z, and movement continued
through about 14/1500Z. Associated with the filament eruption was a
partial halo CME off the east limb, first visible in STEREO-Behind
COR2 imagery at 14/0810Z. A plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at
about 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days
of the forecast period (15 – 17 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period observed between 14/0900 – 1200Z. This
activity was due to continued effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. During the period, solar wind velocities rose
steadily from near 450 km/s to about 550 km/s. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 8 nT while Bt
varied between 5 and 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement, present since 11 June, decayed to background levels
early on 14 June.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (15 June),
with a chance for active levels due to continued high speed stream
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
days two and three (16 – 17 June) as high speed stream effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 099
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01